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Friday, August 08, 2008 

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for the week ahead - RMBS, TRN, COMS, JPM, FNM

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

FNM sure took a hit in July and managed to find support around 10-14 with upside volume starting to pick up. The stock broke down its support on Friday on increased volume and selling pressure making this stock appear that it could easily be sent down to its support around 6.80. Only the break of the prior support now resistance confirmed by a daily closing will support higher levels. The indicators of the daily chart are still negative suggesting further possible pressure but a strong closing again above the top of Friday could change this scenery.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

JPM - The stock is trading in a tight range between $39.26 ( 20 dma ) and $42 ( 200 dma ). I think the market is waiting for fresh news to define the trend, however if the stock breaks the 200-day moving average , then that is a bullish sign as higher prices. On the flip side, if the 20 day-moving average is broken to the downside, it is a bearish sign of possibly lower prices to come. Stay tuned.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

Shares of 3Com (NASDAQ COM) crossed the 20 moving average this week to close at $2.16. The technical chart shows the stock is now in a bull market as MACD is high above signal line and K line is also on top over D line. In addition the short term trend is bullish as the stock is on top of the 20 day moving average. Next resistance is at $2.19, if this level is penetrated with heavy volume, the stock is likely to test next resistance at $2.38.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

TRN - On Friday the stock broke a bullish pennant formation.This is a bullish development and most often leads to sharply higher. Prices generally exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

RMBS closed at $15.67 Friday. Rambus is the frequent subject of patent infringement & anti-trust claim issues. Hynix Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, Micron Tech have had patent infringement suits with Rambus. RMBS September option implied volatility of 103 is above its 6-month average of 74 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. So, it’s predictable that something could happen soon. It’s time to be positioned and in alert. From a technical point of view, with KD going up the stock is probably ready for a rally. Short term traders can go long if stock breaks the level of $16.03 ( 20 dma ) and thereafter stock can target the level of $17.03.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. See you Monday !!!

AC

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23:56 | |

Wednesday, August 06, 2008 

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Thursday - CIEN, COMS, DDUP, Q

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

Q - The stock failed to break the resistance at $3.90 in July and looks like and accident waiting to happen.Today Qwest broke the major medium term support indicating a strong downmove in the coming days. Keep watching the stock for a major downmove if it breaks the next support at $3.41 on a close basis.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

DDUP is in a sideways price pattern ( $20-$25 range ). Needs to break out either side to see significant moves.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

COMS - The stock closed again above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is registering a strong Bullish signal. Let’s see whether the stock can gather enough momentum to break through $2.19. If the Bulls are able to push through this level, there will be another rally towards $2.30

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

CIEN - Looking at the chart, we can see that the trend is clearly downwards. The MACD is also painting a negative picture with the indicator below its signal line. The stock broke down its major support on Monday on increased volume. The chart suggest that CIENA could easily be sent down to its next support at $16 a share. Not a pretty picture.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. See you Tomorrow !!!

AC

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21:16 | |

Tuesday, August 05, 2008 

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Wednesday - GHM, AAPL, COMS

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

Shares of 3Com Corp surged more than 10% after the company raised its first-quarter sales and profit forecasts amid gains in China. 3Com Corp expects its first quarter results to be stronger than expected due to solid performance its China operations. It expects sales in China to be 10% higher than in the fourth quarter. Company also said it expects to end Q1 with about $530 million in cash. Even with the spike today, the cash position is about 64% of 3Com’s $851 million market cap, in my honest opinion this is a good stock to hold if you're long. Currently stock has a high level of shorts ( click here to see ) and any further good news could force these bearish bets to cover and thus provide another round of buying pressure, or in the other hand if the price holds or raises, the short squeeze will happen. Looking at the daily chart, 3Com Corp is coming back to life after has broken the descending triangle pattern with good volume. In addition KD show buy signal as K line has just rose above D line. Based on current trend the stock may go till $2.19 per share or the 50 day moving average before facing the next resistence. The stock now looks poised to move higher.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

AAPL is finding support from broken resistance around $155. There is a lot of support between $150 and $155, but long-term direction will not be established until the triangle is broken.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

GHM - Looking at the daily of Graham Corp. we can see a nice a nice upward channel pattern. The trend is clearly up, but the stock got overextended and declined on high volume yesterday. A break below its 20-day moving average would be the next bearish signal and I see support around $80. If the stock can go up again to bring K line up, then you should consider a good entry point, when stock breaks above $105 on above average volume.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. See you Tomorrow !!!

AC

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21:24 | |

Saturday, May 31, 2008 

Hot stocks for next week - COMS, HOLX, SPWR, SOLF, AAPL, RFMD

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

RFMD - The stock broke consolidation resistance with heavy volume. The technical chart shows buyers are back. With the surge today K line is again on top over D line showing the stock is back to new rally. This is what strong stocks generally do in a rebound : break resistance, hold the breakout and continue higher. A move towards $5 can be expected as long as $4 holds. I would like to see at least a move above $4.28 before betting on a pull back.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

AAPL is getting a battle with resistance at $190. The stock has been consildating for weeks now, and may be ready to clear this base. The Technical chart shows positive sign as the stock has been above 200-day moving average since mid April and has formed golden cross earlier May. Golden cross is when 50 day MA cross on top over 200 MA and is a very bullish buy signal.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

SOLF breakout !!! The triangle represents a consolidation or rest after an advance. The breakout signals a continuation of the prior advance. Even though I find the breakout bullish, I also find Solar stocks a bit overextended. As long as $21 holds, this breakout is in great shape. A move below $20.80 would question the breakout and further weakness below $20.03 would be outright bearish.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

SPWR - The daily chart shows possible new rally as K line has crossed on top over D line while ROC is still at oversold level. However it is better to wait and see if the stock can break above 50 day moving average.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

HOLX - Looking very good but the stock might consolidate in short term.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

COMS - 3Com Corp is firming just above key support at $2.51 and a triangle has taken shape over the last few weeks. This is a neutral pattern dependent on a break to establish a directional bias. A break below $2.39 would signal a decline and be quite bearish, on the other hans a breakout at $2.60 would be bullish.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a great weekend !!!

AC

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00:15 | |

Monday, May 19, 2008 

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Tuesday - PWAV, COMS, NVDA, BRO, FSLR

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

FSLR - The stock will retract to the $287.65 level and try to establish support there. If support holds, then it'll advance again to a new high, but if support fails, then the next level of support is at $260. Any fall below $279 will ring my alarm bells and a break below $260 would signal a definite reversal.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

BRO pulled back to double support at the previous breakout area. They had a nice move last week confirming support. Let's keep an eye on her, because looks like it will make a run.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

NVDA - The stock might pull back to test the breakout. If that occurs, look for support right around $23. But if that support level fails to hold, then the next level of support is $22.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

COMS - The 20 day moving average is showing a positive gradient and is rising since middle of Apr. This is a bullish sign. In addition, the Bollinger is showing a slightly upward channel.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

PWAV - The stock is showing signs of exhaustion. Latest candle is not a good signal for Bulls ( Doji ). This speaks of a market in transition and a stock that isn’t quite sure of its direction. Further, a doji candle does warn that we could see a change in direction of the stock. In addition, the %K line has crossed below %D, giving a sell signal. The %K line has also turned down and that means PWAV is losing positive momentum or the up trend is coming to an end. Stay tuned on her.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice evening !!!

AC

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21:36 | |

Saturday, May 17, 2008 

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for the week ahead - QXM,JDSU, TRN, BMC, COMS

Hello Friends, I know that many of you are a little resilient about the state of the market, but it becomes obvious we're not in a deep recession as many have predicted. Even with the recent contraction in some sectors, people continue to spend and companies overall reported good earnings. I still believe that we'll see during this year Dowjones hits new highs even with the current high price of Oil, it will be difficult but it's a question of time. No matter what experts are saying, no matter what crude is doing, we just need to focus our attention in the way of the markets is following. Recent rallies in the markets don't seem a Bear Market rally, really doesn't seems to me, it seemed to me something different. Frankly, this could be the start of a new leg up to new highs. Time will tell and I hope have reason. So, concentrate your attention just in what the market is doing and not what Mr. xxxx or other respectable persons on TV and newspapers are saying. It seems that markets are now strong and the US economy may be in the start of a new era of growing, it's my feeling nothing more. People are now more receptive to the bad news, and when this happen "bad news are good news and good news are extremely good news". Earnings are better than expected, and mergers and acquisitions are still taking place. The environment remains positive and the stock market is offering opportunities. Play what you're seeing and not what they are saying.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

COMS continues to consolidate in a tight range, as the stock nears resistance. What makes this stock interesting is that the range continues to shrink as the stock hold up near the top of the range. This stock is poised for a move, and we are going to be there when it happens. I suspect that it will explode to the upside. In addition, Inside trading has been very active over the last month. They are buying now after pausing years. Check the table below.


Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

BMC - Chart looks great. I love gap ups as everyone knows. I believe that this stock will be trading above $40 in the next 30 days. If not, then it should come down to $37 where I will back up the truck like Cramer would say. Lets keep an eye on her.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

TRN up again with heavy volume, however this stock is too extended for additional positions. If you're a disciplined trader, wait a pull back ( pause) to decide. A good entry point for a long position would be around $35.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

JDSU - On Thursday company announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a program to repurchase up to $200 million of the Company's common stock through open market or private transactions during a two year period. This company currently has approximately $1 billion of cash on its balance sheet and has a market capitalization of 2.6 Billion, so from my point of view the current stock price seems a good bargain for the long term.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

QXM - The stock broke resistance but had very little follow through. The stock ran up to $7.7 and pulled right back down to $7.52. Long above $7.56 on a close basis.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice weekend !!!

AC

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00:10 | |

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  • I'm a 44 year old Independent Trader using proprietary technical analysis with more than 20 years experience of investing in the US stock markets. I started this blog in 2006 simply as a way to share my thoughts about capital, risk management, and trading. My blog contains only my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only.

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