Solar Stocks Shine - LDK, ESLR, FSLR
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Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com ( click to enlarge )That's All. See you tomorrow !!
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During this year we saw a sharp deterioration of conditions in financial markets. In a global economy, based on complex connections between different markets, the absence of a solid financial system will bring inevitable setbacks in the growth of the real economy. In fact, the current market condition makes the IMF's forecasts a sharp slowdown in the global economy for 2009, particularly in advanced economies, like US. In consequence of this economical environment, the IMF predicts a slowdown of the U.S. economy from 1.6% in 2008 to 0.1% in 2009. The growth of the U.S. economy was supported in the first half by the contribution of net external demand and consumption, the result of the devaluation of the dollar and the tax checks sent to families. The blurring of the effects of tax checks and reversing the trend of the dollar and the hard conditions of access to credit will lead to a sharp deceleration of the economy in coming quarters, and it is not ruled out the possibility of contraction. The beginning of the recovery of the real estate sector, although weak in the second half of 2009, should lead to a moderate recovery of the economy. We should keep in mind; the recovery of the economies after the crisis in the banking system is slower than the other crisis, because the result of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy sometimes takes some times to become well successful. As a matter of fact, the market might gain some fuel just on the second half of 2009 or even only in the start of 2010.
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Confidence among American consumers fell more than expected in October, at a time when the fears of a sharp economic recession are affecting the families. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence plummeted to 57.5 in October from 70.3 in September. This figure compares with estimates of analysts, who pointed to the index fell to 65 points, with the average of last year which was 85.6 points. These macroeconomic data still showing signs of clear deterioration of the economical functionality. It's really complicated predict the future of the market right now; because we are trading like a perfect rollercoaster with frustration and fear the main drivers.
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It's hard to say but the current reality still telling us to be cautions and away from this sector. The current financial problem may spread into the European and Asia financial system sooner than later. This is an issue extremely complex to understand, but very real to happen, especially when there are banks that have typically assets with long maturities and short-term liabilities and therefore, even healthy banks may face problems in current conditions. In addition, banks in Europe, after many years of a climate of investment too optimistic, took to their balance sheets, toxic assets and not only assets that originate in the U.S. The risk of a potential collapse of banks in Europe is real, and this scenario should not be put aside. There is a risk and that risk under current conditions, is high. Please be aware of this fact, don't look only for US as the problem of the globe, but more problems may appear in Europe and Asia sooner, it will be a matter of time. The global economy has worsen considerably, and with current rates in Europe the recession is spreading in almost all countries. If we look closely for the macro economical indicators of Spain, Italy, France and German, we'll see that most of them are showing clear signs of a strong retraction, what this mean ? Deep problems ahead. Even more when we have the ECB with just one orientation, working to stop the spike of inflation. I'm quite reluctant about Europe, in my opinion is stifling domestic consumption and will further degrading even more other companies that have Europe as the first destination of its products. As usual here are more trade Ideas for tomorrow.Labels: bankruptcy, FSLR, SOLF
The US markets still showing clear signs of uncertainties and fears just a day after the oil shot to the 120 dollars per barrel, which caused a new wave of fears of economic recession in the U.S. Oil prices shot Monday in an unprecedented way in New York, rising more than $16 in a single day to $120.92, pressured by the decline in the dollar and technical factors. Prices today rectified yesterday's strong recovery but were also pressured by expectations that the U.S. economy will not escape an economic recession, which could lead to a reduction in demand. With fuel prices high, the markets fear that the plan presented on Thursday will not be sufficient to protect the economy from a recession. The uncertain remain well present in the market and all cautions must be taken in consideration.
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Shares of solar companies rose Monday as analysts become more optimistic about prospects for global growth in demand for solar energy products.Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar said that talks with industry officials last week at a major German solar technology conference convinced him to increase his estimate of total 2008 demand for solar energy products to about 4.6 gigawatts from 4.2 gigawatts. "We believe global demand is tracking much better than expected due to strength in Italy and other geographies," he wrote in a client note. It's time to focus our attention on this Sector again !!!
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