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Saturday, November 15, 2008 

The financial world is moving in quicksand

The worst news of the week, Europe in recession !!!!

The economy of the eurozone entered a recession for the first time in 15 years. The GDP in the 15 euro nations shrank 0.2 percent from the previous three months, when it also contracted 0.2 percent, the European Union's Luxembourg-based statistics office said today. The two quarters of contraction, the result of this year's surges in the cost of credit, the euro's rise and oil's jump, inevitably marked the first recession since the Euro was introduced almost a decade ago. Even without a magic ball in front of my eyes, it's clear that Europe and other countries will surfer the deepest recession since 1929. The ECB last week lowered its benchmark rate by a half- point to 3.25 percent, but it is not enough, BCE must cut the rates immediately to 2% or less. The economic climate is extremely difficult in many sectors and the first victims of this slowdown were the Automobile Manufacturers, with the dramatic drop in sales.. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association the European car sales plunged almost 15 percent in October, the sixth monthly decline, and nobody sees positive signs to stop the fall. The financial world is moving in quicksand. Please find below more Trade Ideas for the week ahead.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

SUN - The stock closed higher Friday, reconfirming the new uptrend after the recent break above the major resistance on expanding volume. Looking at the daily technical chart it shows very bullish sign as the stock is back on top of 50 day moving average. In addition K line is still above D line and MACD above 0, showing bull market. At the moment, it is still possible to see the stock advance a bit further from here, although the resistance at $40 is quite strong and any downturn below $34.60 would probably mean that the highs are already in place. Stay tuned on Sunoco.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

GOOG - After a sharp upward move on Thursday, the stock failed to close above the major resistance at $310.30 in volatile trade. Technical indicators remain bearish with MACD momentum moving lower in negative territory and RSI trending lower in negative territory. A close below support at $300 will reconfirm the medium-term downtrend and forecast more losses, while a close above resistance in the $312 area would predict a test of congestion resistance near $325.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

JDSU - Seems like a falling knife scenario to me. Don’t buy it on the way down. The stock could really be near the bottom right now, but it is near impossible to predict the absolute bottom. Any close below support at the long-term low at $2.95 will reconfirm the long-term downtrend and forecast substantial additional losses. The downtrend continuation scenario is now more likely.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )

FSLR - The short-term outlook for First Solar remains bearish and a drop to the $105-110 range appears likely. Short positions may be considered with a price target of $105.50 and a stop-loss at $124.97.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. See you Monday !!

AC

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Tuesday, January 29, 2008 

Technically Bearish but I’m not yet well convinced

Stock markets have been in full retreat this year, with the major indexes down more than 10 percent in January. Many people have being talking on the floors of a possible strong Bear Market ahead, but I’m not yet convinced about that. Honestly speaking I think we’ve started correction more conservative than was before, after recent years of gains and due to some worries related with the credit crunch, but in just one month we have lost all gains of 2007 and 2006, extremely exaggerated and a rebound from the current levels is now very likely. Over the last years of nice and strong gains in some markets, investors have been driven by greed, but we're now seeing investors being driven by many risks on their minds associated to fears of US recession, and that can make them irrational, like we saw last week. Technically we’re in a Bear Market in some Indices, no doubt about that, but it seems too early to decide to put all my money on the short side, I have many doubts to be clarified before increase my position. We’re seeing a strong intervention by FED in the last days to stop a possible recession, and the aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could help to stabilize the economy and support the stressed banking sector. In addition the a $145 billion tax-stimulus plan offered by President Bush late last week. The subprime crisis has led to a credit crunch in the United States and the possibility of a recession in the U.S. which could affect the entire world. It is important to keep an eye on what is happening in America and analyze carefully all macro economic reports. So, the message that I try to pass through, is to hold your nerve and to take the opportunities that will certainly arise on bad days to pick up shares standing on far better ratings than have been available for some time, there are now many cases like that in the stock market. Don't be hasty, the opportunities are happening.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

RF Micro Devices shares caught my attention since the last sell-off occurred early in this month. Stock is currently 50% cheaper compared to December prices, trading with a PE of 6, very low for a technology company. Current prices are very attractive and I’m currently increasing a position in this stock at these levels, without fear, anything becomes possible when stocks reach these levels of oversold. Honestly speaking, chart is printing a weakness picture for a possible fast rebound, but the $4.30 level should be my target for the next month, depending of course of the earnings report that will be out on 31st of January. The main reason to have entered long in this stock was Nokia results which are one of the most important customers of RFMD. So, if you like this company and are accompanying its model business, be patience because a turnaround in share price should occur soon.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

FSLR - Broke symmetrical triangle on volume. Looking for the confirmation tommorrow.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

Early this month CNXT made a bottom around $0.56. The stock retested this level a few days ago, which leaves a double bottom pattern on the chart above. The MACD is showing a positive divergence, after which the MACD made a bullish crossover. Both the RSI and the Stochastics are now rising out of the oversold levels. So, keep an eye on CNXT for a possible breakout over its resistance at $0.68 ( 20 dma ).

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a great evening !!!

AC

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Thursday, June 21, 2007 

Hottest stock of the market FIRST SOLAR

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

ALERT : FLSR Breakout 80$ !!! Another sunny day................
Shares of FLSR were up 2% on Friday to 80.82$ and reaching during the session a new 52 week high at 81.88$. First Solar is one of the hottest stocks in the market right now. The recent IPO was at 20$ and stock is now above 80$, WOW Amazing movement !!! Technically speaking based on above chart, stock show a continuation of the trend with MACD and RSI in the Bullish areas, the stock is in a strong bull market with both 50 day and 200 day moving average going up, however in overbought conditions. The momentum this last two weeks has been phenomenal on First Solar, stock came from 61 to above 80$ in just a few days. I won't be surprise if FLSR reachs new highs tomorrow, because indicators are extremely Bullishs. Keep an eye on her.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All for today, have a nice evening !!!

AC

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  • I'm a 48 year old Independent Trader using proprietary technical analysis with more than 20 years experience of investing in the US stock markets. I started this blog in 2006 simply as a way to share my thoughts about capital, risk management, and trading. My blog contains only my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only.

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