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Friday, April 25, 2008 

Stay away from this band of speculators

This post is only to alert all of the new traders out there to be careful with the crude Oil Bullish momentum. It's clear that market is living a bubble sentiment around the crude Oil contracts with some experts pushing it to new consecutives highs. Besides that, there are some analysts who are part of this game, trying to grab the opportunity of the flash reports on the financial TV to put more pressure on the small trader size, to buy contracts predicting a crude Oil price of $150, $160, $180 and so on. This is completely ridiculous; no one should make this kind of prediction when the demand for fuel is clearly slowing. The world's largest economy is undergoing a significant contraction, some might even say a recession, and on that basis the demand/supply fundamentals simply have to favour lower priced oil, so this no make any sense. Yesterday, I was completely furious when I saw Francisco Blanch ( Merrill Lynch ) telling that prices of Oil can hit $150 this year. Yeah it's possible!!! But with the continuation of the lack of demand the only thing that pushes Oil prices higher is the speculation and the overall bubble environment around this commodity, I don't see anything more. Do you see????? So, stay away from this band of speculators, because sooner than later this bubble will bust. I know that the slump in the green black is direct linked to this factor, but honestly speaking crude Oil at $120 no make any sense, just speculation behind this fact. When bubble burst I will see many people with their hands burned, I hope don't be one of them.

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I couldn't agree more! The predictions of $150 a barrel are just not sustainable. Thats a $90 increase in less than 2 years. Do the math ... $90 x 20 million barrels a day x 365 days a year = $675 billion or %5.2 of the US GDP. No wonder we are in a recession.

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  • I'm a 48 year old Independent Trader using proprietary technical analysis with more than 20 years experience of investing in the US stock markets. I started this blog in 2006 simply as a way to share my thoughts about capital, risk management, and trading. My blog contains only my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only.

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