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Friday, February 29, 2008 

Market movers

Most actives : MSFT , CSCO , IWM, C , S , DELL

Gainers : MNTA , VRNM , JRJC , INT , SAPE

Losers : FMT , LLNW , ABH , RHD , DUCK

Upgrades :

ESEA, TRAK, DECK, ETR, QSFT, REP, PFE

Downgrades :

INAP, CPL, MF, EOG, BEAS, RHD, OCR, NVS, GTI, AIG, MF

Macro economic news :

Personal Incomes, Spending Rise More Than Estimates, PCE Core at Estimates, Chicago PMI Contracts, Consumer Confidence Inches Above Estimates

- Personal Income for January rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .5% gain in December.

- Personal Spending for January rose .4% versus estimates of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised .3% gain in December.

- PCE Core for January rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .2% increase in December.

- The Chicago Purchasing Manager for February fell to 44.5 versus estimates of 49.5 and a reading of 51.5 in January.

- The final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for February rose to 70.8 versus estimates of 70.0 and prior estimates of 69.6.

See you later,

AC

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20:26 | |

Thursday, February 28, 2008 

Stocks to watch Friday - STX, AMZN, AAPL, BIDU

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

BIDU - The stock has found a nice resistance on its 200-day moving average, stabilizing some of the recent gains. Now, the buy point will be on the day it blows through $260 on heavy volume. Stay tuned on her.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

AAPLE has been trading in a downtrend channel over the last month, however stock finally broke out today after Iphone news. AAPL may get a nice bounce after clearing this downtrend channel.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

It looks like AMZN will begin to accelerate to the downside here. Dead cross pattern activated.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

STX looks ready to break down here so keep an eye on it tomorrow. The stock has been sitting around 50 day moving average for a week but now with K line crossing below D line and stock closing below its 50-day moving average, there's a chance of new share price drop.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a great evening !!!

AC

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21:14 | |

 

Stocks to watch tomorrow - JNPR, VOL , BRCM, AMZN

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

AMZN - The technical chart above shows weakness as the stock is trading below major moving averages ( 20, 50, 200 ), and if you look closely, you can see that its 50-day moving average is poised to slip under the 200-day level (A Dead Cross is created when shorter moving average crosses below a longer moving average. This is generally considered a bearish signal ). Amazon is trading at 63Xs 2007 earnings, 46Xs consensus 2008 earnings, 27Xs 2007 free cash flow. With a recession coming, and a weaker consumer, stock price could be well affected. Technically, stock is in a short term Bearish mode. Plus, insider transcations are very active, Jeff Bezos sold 1.85 million shares of Amazon.com in mid-February for $73.21.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

BRCM - Stock starts showing ‘buy' signals again. However after recent decline in share price, a good entry point will be only in a break of its 20-day moving average at $20.80 on heavy volume. Stay tuned on her.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

VOL - The stock closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March of 2007, with heavy volume. Although the stock didn't perform well last year, we start to see now some signals of rebound as the technical chart shows positive momentum is back, and with MACD back above 0. In addition the 20-day moving average recently crossed on top over 200 day moving average which is a very positive sign. Let's keep an eye on her.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

JNPR - Stock confirmed my previous analyze, breaking today the neckline of the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. At this point it seems that we have room for $1 run before next resistance at $30.30.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a great evening !!!

AC

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01:09 | |

Wednesday, February 27, 2008 

100.000 HITS !!!!!


Hello Folks !!! Another milestone achieved!! AC Investor Blog hits just touched the 100.000 mark a few hours ago and still counting. I’m really happy with this fact, especially because just around 6 months back, i.e. on 27th July, I was celebrating its 50.000 hits, and now its already reached 100.000!! I want to thank you, the person reading this, because you are my fans and you make this site possible. Thank you very much. Highly encouraging !!!

See you later !!!

AC

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17:18 | |

Tuesday, February 26, 2008 

Stocks to watch tomorrow - RIMM, CREE, MT

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

CREE - This stock has been is on a remarkable run since last month and it doesn’t looks like the trend will change soon. Today stock broke out an important resistance at $34.80 with heavy volume. After today session, stock has now the chance to start a new rally as K line is now back on top over D line indicating buy signal. If MACD can also be back to 0 then there will be more buyers coming back for the stock. Keep CREE in your watchlist.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

RIMM - In the last trading sessions, the stock found resistance around its downtrend line and declined. This is usually a negative signal. Recently good news has brought the stock back up again but with the stock approaching resistance at $110 it is better to wait right now and wait to see if the stock can break above the resistance. This stock may go down ( probably to its 50-day moving average ) before it goes back up.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

MT - The stock should pause around its resistance at $80 after recent rally in share price. The recent action in MT is very promising. Last month stock aggressively moved off its lows of $55.63 to rally till near $79 with a volume above average. A possible breakout over $80 is very likely in the sessions ahead. However, the stock needs a rest here and I'd would like to see a healthy pullback to work off overbought conditions.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice weekend !!!

AC

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21:20 | |

Monday, February 25, 2008 

Stocks to watch tomorrow - JNPR, HPQ, AMZN, JASO

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

JASO - Daily chart above shows that it is still to early to say that the downtrend has ended. Stay tuned on her for a possible breakdown below the support level at $15.16 on a close basis.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

AMZN - Not a pretty picture. The short term trend is still weak as the stock has been trading below 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average, with 50 day MA now going downward showing bearish signal. Stock still in downtrend mode. It is better to stay at the sideline and see how the stock react for the next few days as the stock has approached the pressure line of 20-day moving average. Shares were up 1.6% but with low volume, a clear signal of weakness to move up.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

HPQ - The stock closed above its 200-day moving average of $47.76, which is a very bullish sign. From a technical perspective stock still looks bullish and there is no evidence we can see for a major correction just yet.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

JNPR - Juniper shows a possible inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart with a neckline at $28. We will have to wait and see. The big movement in the past few days tells me to be patient. Buy point is when it crosses the neckline at $28 on heavy volume.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice evening !!!

AC

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21:18 | |

Saturday, February 23, 2008 

The Recession Is Under Way & Trade Ideas for next week

There seems to me that there is a very high possibility of economic recession in US in front of us, and probably (I’m not sure) we’re living now that state. With slipping jobs data showed by the decline in January payrolls and the rising unemployment rate, a weak retail chain store sales reports with a surprising falloff in the ISM nonmanufacturing index, there is no doubt that the Recession is under way. Plus, on Thursday the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported regional manufacturing fell more than expected. Investors were also disappointed with another drop in the Conference Board's monthly index of leading economic indicators. No matter what people are saying, FED chairman was clear, the economic conditions are deteriorating significantly too fast. I’m not an expert in economic fundamentals indicators, but for a guy like me, that normally spends too much time reading economic books, there is no reason to not believe in this scenario, however I have just a simple question. Will be a deep or just a soft recession? I’m pointing to the second one, but I’m really extremely cautious right now. Things are not good, neither indications give me a fresh air to put this worry out off my mind, so as I said before play on the defensive side. It will be very depressing for all of us see the biggest world economy entering again in recession, even being just for some time. Risks to the downside are very high.

Now take a look at my trade Ideas for the week ahead.


The area of previous resistance of FSLR around $200, now has become support. If the support holds, then it signals an intermediate to short term trend change. In this case it quickly rise away from support, but if support is broken, then expects a move to $143 ( I don't believe in this cenario ). Buy point is on the day it breaks the upper line mentioned on chart on heavy volume.



MSPD was a nice play at the down trendline, however, it looks like there is more downside here. Stock broke on Friday one important support with heavy volume, this is a bearish signal. I believe this move will continue. There is no support below.



JASO - Looking at the daily chart, this stock is being supported around $15.70 area, near its 200-day moving average. Although MACD show positive sign with fast line rising on top of slow line, this is not yet the time to buy as the stock is still weak as 20-day moving average is still falling and the stock is sitll on downtrend. A close below $15.70 with volume, it will be the signal to sell.



CNXT is at critical support near $0.55. Stock could go either way depending on how it deals with the major trendline. Chart doesn't look good for longs on stock.


VIVO formed a symmetrical triangle pattern during its uptrend which led to upside continuation. The buy point is when price clears the upper trend line and volume expands to take the stock higher. Next week keep an eye on VIVO shares.


LVLT - Looking at the daily chart above, it shows weakness as the stock is trading below its moving averages. In addition MACD is below 0 showing the stock is in bear market. The only positive signal is KD where K line is about to cross on top over D line and may start a little bounce back rally. Resistance is now at $2.50. Stay tuned on her.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.
That's All. Have a nice weekend !!!

AC

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21:12 | |

 

Statistics of AC Investor Blog over week 8 ( from 16/2 to 22/2 )

Here is the chart provided by SiteMeter describing the overall Statistics of AC Investor Blog over the week 8 . If you're Interested in advertise on AC Investor Blog, send an email to antonio.mrcosta@gmail.com with your offer or use the forms within the site.


Some statistics of blog during the week 8
Posts: 9
Average Visitors per day: 351
Page Loads per day: 500
Most traffic from: USA, Portugal, Singapore, UK , Canada

Enjoy your weekend !!!!

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20:29 | |

Thursday, February 21, 2008 

Stocks to watch tomorrow - HPQ, CSIQ, BAC, AMZN

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

Amazon shares lost 5 percent of their value on today session with high volume. In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Jeffrey P. Bezos reported he sold 1.85 Million shares for $73.21 apiece on Friday, causing some panic on investors, which generally is not a good news for market and shareholders. The technical chart shows weakness as the stock is trading below major moving averages. In addition, MACD is losing ground and is approaching of the sell signal. Another negative indicator is KD where K line is below D line which could mean more share price decline. First support is now at $67.22.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

BAC - The daily chart shows that the stock is moving in sideways since the beginning of February. Stock closed today below its 20-day moving average near the bottom of the channel. Macd Fast line crossed below 0 line or macd slow line, below 0. Indicates start of a new downtrend. Watch for a breakdown of the channel mentioned above, for a possible short position. RSI is also declining.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

CSIQ - The stock is moving in an upward channel since the low of $15 made in January. However I'm a little worried with fact that all indicators are appointing for a possible breakdown of the channel, so if you're long on this stock, hold with a stop-loss at $19,67.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

HPQ - The 200 day moving average is acting as resistance on HPQ. This stock keeps having good earnings and has had some great runs in the past. Maybe it is about to start another one. Buy point would be on the day it blows through its 200 day moving average on heavy volume.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice evening !!!

AC

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21:19 | |

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 

Raises stagflation fears and stock Ideas

Stagflation is now the word heard on the floors of Wall Street that is putting fears in investors mind. This particular economic condition is generally characterized by slow growth, rapidly rising consumer prices, and relatively high unemployment, which for now is not happening in US. Stagflation occurs when the economy isn't growing but on the other hand there is a high unemployment (stagnation) while prices rise (inflation). This happened to a great extent during the 1970s, when world oil prices rose dramatically, fuelling sharp inflation in developed countries. From my point of view, the current high prices of commodities may put this economic condition in action. In addition, early this morning, the government reported that consumer prices in country rose more than forecast last month, indicating that the slowing American economy isn't alleviating inflation pressures. The 0.4 percent rise in consumer prices was led by increases in the prices of food, energy and health care. Now, the FED has a big problem in their hands, slow grow with high inflation. I don't know but this is not good, as I said before, we may be living a problem of stagflation. Keep your eyes well open, and play on the defensive side.



Looking at the chart of CAL, it is pushing up against the downtrend line and it's 200 day moving average. I'm not sure if it will reverse here and retest the recent lows, but it seems like it will at least back off and retrace to the 50- day moving average. MACD fast line is approaching to cross below D line.



What a day for RIMM. Stock completely changed my point of view and closed the day well positioned to break one important area. So, tomorrow keep an eye on RIMM for apossible breakout over $98.15 on a close basis.



ADCT is at critical support near $13.50. Stock could go either way depending on how it deals with a major trendline.


CSCO - I believe this move will continue toward the $22.30 or even $21.77 before the stock moves higher again. The major resistance is around $24. The break of the descending line with heavy volume should be the next buy point on CSCO.


Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.
That's All. Have a nice evening !!!

AC

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21:56 | |

Tuesday, February 19, 2008 

Stocks to watch tomorrow - TSRA, GOOG, RIMM

Last week FED gave more indications that something is going wrong within the US economy. It is now a fact, that the State of the US economy is not good and healthy , showing signs of weakness and a pre-disease announced. There are now plenty of problems to take care, with things like inflation, interest, jobs, oil and energy, trade deficit, and the housing market, that should be considered before start building a new sentiment of optimism. I am not arguing that the economy is really bad or in recession, but there are signals that are pushing me to believe in a small possibility to become real. Anyway, US markets can make during the first start of this year a correction as it is happening, but in the second half I'm sure that it will regain the previous momentum and the status of Bull again. As I have focused on my previous posts, for a perspective of long term, I'm still optimistic and bet on a better scenario for the technologies stocks, now that the interest begin to be felt in the income of consumers. So, let's the market do what should be done, after 4 consecutive good years of gains, it's natural appear now a healthy correction. The storm will pass soon and a new run to the end of the decade might be initiated. Play on the defensive side.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

OIL: March NYMEX crude contract hits the $100 mark again, confirming my previous technical analyse. The reaction of the markets was immediate, becoming now the price of oil, a major factor of inflation for the coming months.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

RIMM - The stock failed to pass over the resistance at $98 last week. RIMM is clearly losing momentum in the short term and downside is likely. Another negative indicator is KD where K line seems to be ready to fall below D line, which could mean share prices are heading for a fall.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

GOOG - The stock failed to break its horizontal resistance ( 20-day moving average ) at $533 on a close basis. The momentum shifted and short sellers dominated the action on today session. It looks like GOOG should retest previous lows at $488.52.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

TSRA - Stock closed below its key moving averages support, breaking also the short uptrend line.
Looks like TSRA could easily drop to the $36 area.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice evening !!!

AC

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21:23 | |

Saturday, February 16, 2008 

Crude oil at $100 a barrel will be soon a reality & more trade Ideas for next week

Hello dear readers,

For the first time since a long time, AC Investor Blog was not updated on Thursday due to just one factor, Valentine's Day. There is always a time when we have to think ourself and see what is going on around us, and that time was Thursday. So, sorry, be comprehensive and let's back to work.
Why are oil quotes so hot again? Some guys say OPEP is making all efforts to maintain prices above $80, others saying that US slowdown will not affect directly demand of Oil and just few of them anticipating a possible war in the Middle East (unlikely I'm sure but there is always a possibility), and do you know which is my point of view in all of this scenario, speculation....... to pump this commodity to high levels. Currently, surging oil prices have darkened the economic outlook in the United States and also have threatened economic growth in Europe, so the crude are very linked to the actual situation of instability in economy but some guys are trying for all ways to hide this fact and focus only the currently debility in economic with a problem of subprime. Presently, it appears that high prices are acceptable to the American and Europeans consumers, reports of demand still showing no signs of a dramatically cut by people who uses their cars as the main way of transport, on the other hand outside the US, demand increases are being led by India and China, where growing economies mean more cars and trucks and more factories that burn oil and gas. All these factors together are a good tone for traders, speculate and pump this commodity, even knowing that economy will slowdown. So, there is no reason to dream with Oil prices at $50, 60 or even $75 again, we are facing a lot of changes in our way of life and we will pay for that. Did you saw our governments providing economic incentives for alternative energies or creating new ways for consumers slowdown the use? I'm not; probably I'm blind and just seeing the Black liquid in front of me. Anyway, and I'm not a fundamental analyst of Oil neither like to talk about that, but I'm just alerting you for the prices that you will see soon in front of eyes when you'll have to go to a gas station with your car. From a technical perspective, Oil will soon spike again and next stop will be well above $100.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

Technically Crude Oil is Bullish in all ways and their quotes become more hot than you could imagine....... Hundred-dollar oil is a mere psychological milestone and it will be soon broken. I hope be wrong in this opinion, because this could have a big impact in the economy around world.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

SPWR broke out of a nice resistance and is pulling back to test breakout area, previous resistance acting now as support. Keep an eye for a bounce. Technically speaking, stock is now in a rally as K line is on top of D line and MACD above sell line. Although the stock is showing some weak signals in medium term, the stock does have the potential to be back around 200 day moving average or around 85 cents per share.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

SNDK - Stock is trading just $1 buck above it’s 52 week low of 24.29, and well below its high of $59,75. A close below $25,25 would impart further weakness and could a subsequent drop to $24.29. KD is showing weakness as K line is now below D line. At the moment, I favour a positive view on the stock and expect the share price to hold above the support at $24.29. However you should keep in mind that stock is in a Strong Bear Market.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

EBAY – stock is sitting right around the 20 dma. This stock has some support around $27.50 range. A close below this level will push share price down significantly to next support level around $26. Stay tuned.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

ADCT - Stock is in a downtrend in the recent weeks and there are no signs of the end of this trend. A close below $13,50 would communicate further weakness and the stock could drop to $13-12.65. Only a close above $13,96 would reinstate positive trend. Hold with a stop-loss at $13,50.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

RMBS - The stock is trading in a tight range on low volume between $19-18, after breaking out early this week above its 200-day moving average. I'd look to the 50-day moving average as the next buy point. Let’s keep an eye on RMBS.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice weekend !!!

AC

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08:39 | |

 

Statistics of AC Investor Blog over week 7 ( from 9/2 to 16/2 )


Here is the chart provided by SiteMeter describing the overall Statistics of AC Investor Blog over the week 7 . If you're Interested in advertise on AC Investor Blog, send an email to antonio.mrcosta@gmail.com with your offer or use the forms within the site.


Some statistics of blog during the week 7
Posts: 8
Average Visitors per day: 400
Page Loads per day: 642
Most traffic from: USA, Germany, UK

Enjoy your weekend !!!!

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08:02 | |

Wednesday, February 13, 2008 

Stocks to watch on Valentine's Day

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

The area of previous support of RIMM around $97, now becomes resistance. If the resistance holds, then it signals an intermediate to short term trend change. In this case it rose and quickly fell away from resistance, but if resistance is broken, then expects a move to $110.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

RMBS looks to be stabilizing at the 200 dma and trendline. A Breakout from $18.75 and a new rally should follow.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

Google may find some resistance to break above its 20-day moving average at $546, however stock is now gaining a Bullish momentum after it has been broken over this week the descending channel.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

FSLR broke the ascending triangle pattern with Bullish spike in volume. The trend is now in favour of Bulls. Stock has now room to go higher. MACD and RSI both in Bullish areas.

Chart courtesy of stockcharts

LDK has closed the day above its downtrend line but far from the highs of the day. So, wait for tomorrow confirmation before entry long at this level. A confirmation with volume should result in a continued upside to test its strong first resistance at $40.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

That's All. Have a nice evening !!!

AC

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21:29 | |

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  • I'm a 44 year old Independent Trader using proprietary technical analysis with more than 20 years experience of investing in the US stock markets. I started this blog in 2006 simply as a way to share my thoughts about capital, risk management, and trading. My blog contains only my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only.

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